Ten Years Ago

I want you to think back ten years. Think back to where you were, and what you were doing. Think back to what you believed, and what you thought, and what you knew to be true.

Now, I want you to talk to that younger self. C’mon, c’mon…just do it. If I can talk to my (fictional) characters, you can at least talk to yourself!

Okay, now that you’re talking, I want you to tell yourself a couple of things:

1) Bill Cosby is going to prison for rape.
2) Donald Trump is president.

Congratulations, you just gave your younger self an aneurism.

Look, in all seriousness, if some physicist discovered time travel tomorrow and sent3C6C2F46-2C1E-4CB7-9DF0-B691D26A89C8 a note back to his younger self, who the hell would actually believe any of that? Idiocracy was NOT supposed to be a documentary!

I’ve been asked about the “predictions” and assumptions I make in my writing. I’ve been doubted and debated about them a great deal, in fact: about endemic poverty and exploitation, about drugs and sex, and about hopelessness and despair. The future, folks have said to me, is going to be different, it’s going to be better.

E67DAEED-FFE6-4200-91F0-546E04C7F8B5So, just which of my assumptions are in any way less likely than #s 1 and 2 above?! Reality is — always has been, and always will be — far stranger than fiction, but humanity…humanity is even worse.  We always find new and improved ways to screw things up.

One day we will have spread throughout our solar system. One day we might travel, even, to the stars. Hell, one day we will very likely beat the diseases and disorders and problems that so plague us physically today. But even with all of that, even with all of the technology and advances, we won’t change one bit just who we really are.

To refer to a previous post, we humans will always bind ourselves with Marley’s chains. Whether our chains are those of greed, or of ignorance, or of hate and intolerance, that clanking and clinking will follow us not just for the rest of our days, but also for all the days of our children and grandchildren…because, like every generation before us, that is the legacy we have left them.

And people wonder why writers drink…

Screw You, HAL

2001

“I’m sorry, Dave, I’m afraid I can’t do that.”

“Wait…what?  You can’t start my damned coffee maker?”

“I’m sorry, Dave, but coffee is bad for you.  According to the First Law, I cannot allow that to happen.”

“Fuck you.  Siri, where’s the nearest Starbucks?”

“I’m sorry, I can’t do that, Dave.”

Oh yeah, the AI of the future is gonna suck.  Look, I’ve thought for a while how to do a post on AI.  I’ve had friends and family ask me about the topic.  Hell, I’ve even done research on it, for god’s sake!  I NEVER do research for these posts!  I look for stupid pictures to add, and that’s about it…

I am not, by nature and experience and long thought, an optimist about what the future will be like.  Roddenberry’s vision is just too naive and insipid to be anything other than adolescent dreams that will soon be broken on the very real rocks of reality.

No, the future is gonna be a lot more Mal Reynolds and Firefly, and a lot less Jean-Luc Picard and Star Trek.

So, back to AI.

Okay…let’s be honest: in spite of the breathless news reports, we are NOT talking true AI here — true AI, as in “self-aware intelligence”.  What we are talking about, at this moment in time and technology, is a confluence of cheap, massive computing power and increasingly sophisticated “expert systems”.

I cannot, by the way, actually dive into the distinction between “AI” and “expert system”, not if I want to keep this post under 20,000 words.  If you don’t understand that distinction — and want to — just Google “AI” and start with the (surprisingly) not-terrible Wikipedia article, and keep reading from there.

At this point, I do suppose it is time for a reminder that I’m a libertarian.  I’m also pretty damned private.  What (or who) I do is nobody’s business.  Not the government’s, not my family’s, and sure as hell not Facebook’s, nor Google’s, nor any other evil mega-corp.

But, that is exactly what today’s “AI” systems are out to do: learn every single thing they can about me.  They are out to learn everything because there is money in that…the more they know, the more they can sell.  I find that repugnant and distasteful, but not evil, so what’s the problem?

Oh, the problems are just beginning…SharePoint blue

It is a real short step from “knowing everything” in order to sell useless, random shit, to “knowing everything” in order to monitor and enforce everything.  Police and prosecutors are already turning increasingly to the various social media companies to “help solve crimes”…which is lovely PR speak for “Big Brother is ALWAYS watching!”

How long, I have to wonder, until the IRS is running an expert system to scan Facebook and Instagram for “evidence” of money you have not declared?  Or the Customs Bureau for evidence of something purchased abroad that wasn’t declared?  Or the Justice Department for…well, anything they want to turn into a crime?

If they ain’t doing it right now, I give ‘em another six months or so…

Unfortunately, the irresistible fall towards a life of full surveillance is not the worst thing.

Nope, humans being humans, shit manages to keep going downhill, even after that.

In addition to Clarke (the source of my opening joke, if you are…umm…sci-fi challenged) Isaac Asimov wrote about it, in the collection of short stories called “I, Robot” (NOT the Will Smith movie).  Frank Herbert wrote about it.  Phillip K. Dick wrote about it.  Shit, Karel Capek wrote about it, in the freaking TWENTIES…

What they wrote about?  Just how fucked we are when computers start to think for themselves…and how even-more-fucked we are when we hand them the reins.  To this day, the most chilling one-line thought comes from Herbert in his Destination: Void series.  If you haven’t read that series, by the way, correct that mistake:

In the first book* — Destination: Void — mankind fears AI, but still wants to experiment, so the attempts to create one are restricted to ships sent out of the solar system.  When one of those efforts finally succeeds in creating a true AI, the first demand this new “entity” makes is, “How will you worship me?”

*This summary is a VAST simplification of a book that is as much philosophy and theology as it is sci-fi…

All of which brings me back to my opening thought: “I’m sorry, Dave, I can’t do that.”

 

p.s.

I am, by vocation, a writer.  I am, by training, a historian…and also a linguist.  And the very, very deep roots of intrinsic and natural language, and how that relates and translates to machine systems, is actually pretty damned fascinating to me.  If you ever REALLY want to nerd out — and get very confused — start looking into the realm of psycholinguistics.